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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Padova and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 17, as Padova and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.21 xG and Sampdoria 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.81 / defence 1.29 against Sampdoria attack 0.77 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 38% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 31%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 38%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights