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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Padova edge out Reggiana 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Padova beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.26 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Reggiana attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 26%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 41%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Reggiana's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Padova 1.09 PPG, Reggiana 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights