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Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Padova 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Padova 1-2 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.21 xG and Mantova 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mantova outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Mantova attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 41% | Draw 32% | Mantova 27%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 32%, Mantova 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Mantova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights