Padova 1-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Padova host Mantova at Stadio Euganeo in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Padova — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Padova at 1.30 PPG versus Mantova's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Padova have won 0, Mantova 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Mantova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Padova trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Mantova trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 53% versus Mantova 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Padova 32% | Mantova 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.21 xG and Mantova 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.900 / defence 1.147 | Mantova attack 0.792 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.021. Data: 19 Padova games / 57 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 32% | Mantova 27%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Mantova 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Padova 67% | Mantova 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 32% | Mantova 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Padova 1.21 / Mantova 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.900 / def 1.147 | Mantova attack 0.792 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Padova (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mantova xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Mantova kick off?
Padova vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Mantova?
Padova 1 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Padova vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Mantova part of?
Padova vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 41% chance of winning, Mantova a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Padova and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Mantova?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 0W | Draws 0 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Padova and Mantova in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Mantova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Padova's attack at 0.90x the league average against Mantova's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.14
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Padova xG
Total xG
2.14
0.93
Mantova xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Padova and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Padova and 0.93 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Padova come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 7D 6L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 0.84 PPG from 19 outings (4W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Mantova — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Padova's home form reads 2W 5D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 0.84 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Mantova in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Mantova have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Mantova away?
Padova's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.22 PPG; Mantova away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Padova
0
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Padova 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Mantova see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 67%, Mantova 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Padova and 33% for Mantova.
On the defensive side: Mantova in 33%; Mantova in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Padova's recent matches and 22% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Padova vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Padova's recent games and 33% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Mantova tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Mantova in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Padova 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Padova 1-2 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.21 xG and Mantova 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mantova outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Mantova attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 41% | Draw 32% | Mantova 27%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 32%, Mantova 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Mantova's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Mantova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.