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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Padova edge out Empoli 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Padova beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.29 xG and Empoli 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Empoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 36% | Draw 31% | Empoli 33%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 42%, Empoli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Empoli's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Padova 1.03 PPG, Empoli 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights