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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Padova and Cesena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Padova and Cesena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 0.97 xG and Cesena 1.46 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.80 / defence 1.32 against Cesena attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 24% | Draw 29% | Cesena 47%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 36%, Cesena 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Cesena's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights