Padova vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Padova at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Euganeo to face Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Euganeo, Padova have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Euganeo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Padova are significantly better at Stadio Euganeo than their overall form suggests.
Benevento have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Benevento have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Padova against 1.60 for Benevento. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Padova have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Benevento in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Padova half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 54% versus Benevento 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Padova 36% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.21 xG and Benevento 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.932 / defence 1.034 | Benevento attack 0.855 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Data: 49 Padova games / 11 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 37% | Draw 33% | Benevento 30%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Benevento 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 30% | Benevento 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 37% | Draw 33% | Benevento 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Padova 1.21 / Benevento 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.932 / def 1.034 | Benevento attack 0.855 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Padova (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Benevento xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Benevento kick off?
Padova vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Benevento part of?
Padova vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 37% chance of winning, Benevento a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Padova and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Benevento in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Padova's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.85x) against Padova's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.04
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Padova xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
Benevento xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Padova and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Padova and 1.06 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Padova have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 4W 3D 4L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Padova against 1.45 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Padova are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Padova have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Benevento in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.00 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Padova or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Benevento in 27%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Padova) and 0% (Benevento) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Padova) and 25% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Padova's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Padova vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Padova's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Benevento tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →