Padova vs Benevento Prediction & Preview

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Poisson model rates Padova at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Padova face Benevento.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Benevento make the trip to Stadio Euganeo to face Padova in Serie B (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Padova's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Padova have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Padova are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Benevento have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Benevento have posted 2W 0D 2L from their last 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from their last 4 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Padova against 1.60 for Benevento. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Padova's last 10 home games and Benevento's last 4 away games) — Padova have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Benevento in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

Trading

Padova half-time and goal-timing data (last 11 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (last 11 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 54% versus Benevento 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Padova 36% | Benevento 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.22 xG and Benevento 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.941 / defence 1.022 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Data: built from Padova's last 49 games and Benevento's last 11.

Result probabilities: Padova 38% | Draw 32% | Benevento 31%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.66 | Draw 3.13 | Benevento 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Padova's last 10 home games and Benevento's last 4 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Padova 30% (last 10 home games) | Benevento 0% (last 4 away games).

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