Cosenza 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cosenza at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Salernitana — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.10 PPG, Salernitana 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Salernitana trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 51% versus Salernitana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 37% | Salernitana 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.08 xG and Salernitana 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.817 / defence 0.931 | Salernitana attack 0.806 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.069. Data: 49 Cosenza games / 11 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 38% | Draw 38% | Salernitana 23%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Salernitana 4.35. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 60% | Salernitana 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 38% | Draw 38% | Salernitana 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Cosenza 1.08 / Salernitana 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.817 / def 0.931 | Salernitana attack 0.806 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Salernitana xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Salernitana kick off?
Cosenza vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Salernitana?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Cosenza vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Salernitana part of?
Cosenza vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 38% chance of winning, Salernitana a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cosenza and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Salernitana in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cosenza vs Salernitana?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.82) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
38%
2.60
38%
2.62
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.89
0.80
Salernitana xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.80 for Salernitana, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza's recent record stands at 14W 19D 16L from 49 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 5W 14D 30L across 49 games — 0.59 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 6W 9D 9L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 2W 7D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.90 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 14W 19D 16L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 5W 14D 30L in their last 49 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Salernitana away?
Cosenza's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.12 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Salernitana in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Salernitana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Salernitana 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 62%, Salernitana 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cosenza) and 58% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Cosenza's recent matches and 46% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cosenza's recent games and 58% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Salernitana tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Salernitana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.08 xG and Salernitana 0.80 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.82 / defence 0.93 against Salernitana attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 38% | Draw 38% | Salernitana 23%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 37%, Salernitana 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.