Cosenza 1-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cosenza lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Parma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 41% | Parma 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.34 xG and Parma 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.999 / defence 1.175 | Parma attack 0.942 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.054. Data: 59 Cosenza games / 59 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 28% | Parma 32%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Parma 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 80% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 28% | Parma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Cosenza 1.34 / Parma 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.999 / def 1.175 | Parma attack 0.942 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Parma kick off?
Cosenza vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Parma?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Parma.
Where is Cosenza vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Parma part of?
Cosenza vs Parma is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 40% chance of winning, Parma a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cosenza and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Parma in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.00) and Parma's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.94x) against Cosenza's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.51
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.51
1.17
Parma xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.17 for Parma, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 13W 17D 29L from 59 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 18L across 59 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Cosenza against 1.34 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 11W 6D 12L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 8W 12D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.27 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Parma in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 13W 17D 29L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Parma have gone 19W 22D 18L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Parma away?
Cosenza's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.34 PPG; Parma away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Parma 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 55%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cosenza) and 48% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 34%; Cosenza have failed to score in 28% of games; Parma in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cosenza's recent matches and 48% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cosenza's recent games and 48% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Parma tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Parma in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Parma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Parma 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.34 xG and Parma 1.17 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Parma landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Parma attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 40% | Draw 28% | Parma 32%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 41%, Parma 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.95 PPG, Parma 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.