Cagliari 2-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Spal travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Spal have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cagliari 1.40 PPG, Spal 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cagliari have won 0, Spal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Spal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Spal in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 59% versus Spal 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 48% | Spal 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.01 xG and Spal 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.081 / defence 1.065 | Spal attack 0.810 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.054. Data: 21 Cagliari games / 59 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 36% | Draw 33% | Spal 31%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Spal 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 60% | Spal 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 36% | Draw 33% | Spal 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Cagliari 1.01 / Spal 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.081 / def 1.065 | Spal attack 0.810 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Spal xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Spal kick off?
Cagliari vs Spal kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Spal?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Spal.
Where is Cagliari vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Spal part of?
Cagliari vs Spal is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 36% chance of winning, Spal a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cagliari and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 0 | Spal 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Spal in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.00
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cagliari xG
Total xG
1.92
0.91
Spal xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.91 for Spal, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari's recent record stands at 13W 20D 26L from 59 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal, meanwhile, have gone 14W 24D 21L across 59 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.00 PPG, Spal on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 9W 8D 12L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spal's away record stands at 7W 13D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.17 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Spal in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 13W 20D 26L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while Spal have gone 14W 24D 21L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Spal away?
Cagliari's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.21 PPG; Spal away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cagliari
0
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Spal have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Cagliari 2-1 Spal.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 69%, Spal 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cagliari) and 31% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Spal in 31%; Spal in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Spal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Cagliari's games and 41% of Spal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cagliari's recent games and 31% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Spal tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Spal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Spal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Spal 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.01 xG and Spal 0.91 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Spal attack 0.81 / defence 0.81, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 36% | Draw 33% | Spal 31%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 48%, Spal 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Spal's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.00 PPG, Spal 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.