Cosenza vs Frosinone – Match Report

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Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Cosenza 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Cosenza 0-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.16 xG and Frosinone 0.67 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Frosinone attack 0.62 / defence 1.15, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cosenza 45% | Draw 36% | Frosinone 19%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 38%, Frosinone 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cosenza's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Frosinone's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.26 PPG, Frosinone 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights