Cosenza vs Frosinone – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
45%
2.22
36%
2.76
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.83
0.67
Frosinone xG
2.22
45%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.67 for Frosinone, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.