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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monza and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza and Sudtirol finished level at 1-1 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.16 xG and Sudtirol 0.74 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Sudtirol attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 44% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 22%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 46%, Sudtirol 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monza 0.92 PPG, Sudtirol 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights