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Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Sampdoria 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Sampdoria 1-0 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.27 xG and Sampdoria 1.08 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Sampdoria attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 37% | Draw 36% | Sampdoria 27%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 49%, Sampdoria 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Sampdoria's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.54. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights