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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Modena 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Modena 1-0 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.56 xG and Modena 0.92 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.18 / defence 0.80 against Modena attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 50% | Draw 30% | Modena 20%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 48%, Modena 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Modena's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monza 1.23 PPG, Modena 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights