Monza 2-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to U-Power Stadium to face Monza in Serie B, Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Monza's home record at U-Power Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at U-Power Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Monza, 0 for Juve Stabia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Monza — key trading statistics (77 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (77 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 52% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 49% | Juve Stabia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.64 xG and Juve Stabia 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.124 / defence 0.886 | Juve Stabia attack 0.909 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.076. Data: 38 Monza games / 76 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 54% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 18%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Juve Stabia 5.56. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Monza 50% | Juve Stabia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Semi-finals | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 54% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Monza 1.64 / Juve Stabia 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.124 / def 0.886 | Juve Stabia attack 0.909 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Monza (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Juve Stabia xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Monza vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Juve Stabia?
Monza 2 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Monza vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Juve Stabia part of?
Monza vs Juve Stabia is a Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 54% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Monza and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Juve Stabia?
Record (3 meetings): Monza 1W | Draws 2 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Monza and Juve Stabia in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Monza's attack rating (1.12) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.91x) against Monza's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.65
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Monza xG
Total xG
2.51
0.87
Juve Stabia xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
4%
27.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Monza and 0.87 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza come into this having played 77 games, going 25W 20D 32L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.40 PPG from 77 outings (26W 30D 21L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Monza against 1.40 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Monza's home form reads 15W 9D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 1.00 points per game from 37 outings (7W 16D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.14 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 25W 20D 32L in their last 77 games (1.23 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 26W 30D 21L in their last 77 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Juve Stabia away?
Monza's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.46 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Monza
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Monza 2-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Juve Stabia?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Juve Stabia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Monza) and 49% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Monza's games and 60% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Monza's recent games and 49% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Juve Stabia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Juve Stabia 2-1 at U-Power Stadium, Semi-finals, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.64 xG and Juve Stabia 0.87 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 54% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 18%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 49%, Juve Stabia 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.23 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.