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Monza and Empoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brianteo, Regular Season - 38, as Monza and Empoli drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.82 xG and Empoli 0.64 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.13 / defence 0.77 against Empoli attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 64% | Draw 25% | Empoli 11%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 48%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monza 1.24 PPG, Empoli 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights