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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Modena cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Virtus Entella.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Virtus Entella 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.79 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Virtus Entella attack 0.74 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 59% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 12%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Virtus Entella 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights