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Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Modena 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.37 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Venezia attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 30% | Venezia 23%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Venezia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.37 PPG, Venezia 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights