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Stalemate at Modena's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 13, as Modena and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.63 xG and Sudtirol 0.82 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Modena fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against Sudtirol attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 54% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 16%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Sudtirol 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Sudtirol's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.40 PPG, Sudtirol 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights