🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Modena's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 20, as Modena and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.44 xG and Sudtirol 0.90 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Modena fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Sudtirol attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 48% | Draw 31% | Sudtirol 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Sudtirol 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sudtirol's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.25 PPG, Sudtirol 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights