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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Modena 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Modena 2-3 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.49 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Reggiana outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 24%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Reggiana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Reggiana 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.26 PPG, Reggiana 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights