Modena 2-3 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Reggiana travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reggiana — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reggiana's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Modena have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Reggiana in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Modena, 1 for Reggiana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Modena winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Reggiana in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 60% versus Reggiana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Reggiana 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.49 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.974 / defence 1.031 | Reggiana attack 0.820 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.186. Data: 72 Modena games / 72 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 24%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Reggiana 4.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 70% | Reggiana 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Modena 1.49 / Reggiana 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.974 / def 1.031 | Reggiana attack 0.820 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Modena (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Reggiana xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Reggiana kick off?
Modena vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Reggiana?
Modena 2 - 3 Reggiana.
Where is Modena vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Reggiana part of?
Modena vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 47% chance of winning, Reggiana a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Modena and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Reggiana?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Modena and Reggiana in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Reggiana (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.42
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Modena xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
Reggiana xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Modena and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Modena and 1.00 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 72 games, going 20W 31D 21L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.14 PPG from 72 outings (18W 28D 26L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.26 PPG, Reggiana on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 12W 13D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.17 points per game from 35 outings (10W 11D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 31D 21L in their last 72 games (1.26 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 18W 28D 26L in their last 72 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Reggiana away?
Modena's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.40 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Reggiana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Modena's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Modena
0
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Reggiana have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Modena 2-1 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 57%, Reggiana 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Modena) and 40% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reggiana in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Modena's recent matches and 46% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Modena's recent games and 40% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Reggiana tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Modena 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Modena 2-3 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.49 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Reggiana outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 24%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Reggiana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Reggiana 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.26 PPG, Reggiana 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.