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Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Pescara 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Pescara 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.71 xG and Pescara 0.84 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Pescara attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Pescara 15%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Pescara 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Pescara's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pescara managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights