Modena 2-1 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Pescara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pescara make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pescara have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Modena, 1.00 for Pescara — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Modena register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Pescara in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Pescara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 50% and Pescara 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Modena 50% | Pescara 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.71 xG and Pescara 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.098 / defence 0.932 | Pescara attack 0.794 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.143. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Modena games / 4 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Pescara 15%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Pescara 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Modena (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Modena 80% | Pescara 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Pescara 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Modena 1.71 / Pescara 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.098 / def 0.932 | Pescara attack 0.794 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Modena (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Pescara xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Pescara kick off?
Modena vs Pescara kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Pescara?
Modena 2 - 1 Pescara.
Where is Modena vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Pescara part of?
Modena vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 55% chance of winning, Pescara a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Modena and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Pescara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Pescara in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Pescara (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.10) and Pescara's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pescara's attack (0.79x) against Modena's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.28
15%
6.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Modena xG
Total xG
2.56
0.84
Pescara xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
6.68
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
3%
36.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Modena and 0.84 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Pescara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Modena have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 3W 1D 0L record — W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pescara's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Pescara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pescara.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 2.00 scored and 1.75 conceded. Pescara's attacking output running into Modena's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 75%.
Defensively: Modena have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Pescara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Pescara in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while Pescara have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Modena or Pescara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Pescara in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Modena
0
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Pescara have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Pescara 0-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Pescara?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Pescara 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Modena and 100% for Pescara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Modena's games and 75% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Modena's matches and 100% of Pescara's.
Do Modena and Pescara tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pescara in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Pescara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Pescara 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.71 xG and Pescara 0.84 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Pescara attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Pescara 15%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Pescara 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Pescara's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pescara managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.