🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Modena at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Pescara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Pescara make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Form

Modena (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pescara have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Modena, 1.00 for Pescara — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Modena register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Pescara in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading Data

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Pescara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 50% and Pescara 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Modena 50% | Pescara 100%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.71 xG and Pescara 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.098 / defence 0.932 | Pescara attack 0.794 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.143. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Modena games / 4 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Pescara 15%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Pescara 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Modena (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Modena 80% | Pescara 75% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights