Modena vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 41%, yet in-form Palermo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Modena vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Palermo at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palermo are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Palermo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Modena's 0 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palermo have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Palermo trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 53% versus Palermo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 53% | Palermo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.75 xG and Palermo 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.193 / defence 0.926 | Palermo attack 1.376 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Modena games / 48 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 41% | Draw 26% | Palermo 33%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Palermo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Palermo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 41% | Draw 26% | Palermo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Modena 1.75 / Palermo 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.193 / def 0.926 | Palermo attack 1.376 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Modena (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Palermo xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Palermo kick off?
Modena vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 December 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Palermo part of?
Modena vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 41% chance of winning, Palermo a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Modena and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
Record (8 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 3 | Palermo 5W.
What form are Modena and Palermo in?
Modena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.88
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Modena xG
Total xG
3.33
1.57
Palermo xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Modena and 1.57 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Modena have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 21W 12D 16L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 28W 14D 7L from 49 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Modena.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (12W 5D 8L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 9W 10D 6L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.73 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palermo in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Palermo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 21W 12D 16L in their last 49 games (1.53 PPG), while Palermo have gone 28W 14D 7L in their last 49 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Palermo away?
Modena's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.64 PPG; Palermo away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Modena or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palermo in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Palermo have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 56%, Palermo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Modena) and 44% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Modena's games and 56% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Modena's recent games and 44% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Palermo tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Palermo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.