🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Modena's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 21, as Modena and Palermo drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.25 xG and Palermo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Modena fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Palermo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Palermo attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 38% | Draw 28% | Palermo 35%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Palermo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Palermo's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Palermo 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights