Modena 2-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Palermo at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.30 PPG, Palermo 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Palermo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Modena's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 2–4 with Palermo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palermo have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Palermo trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 61% versus Palermo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Palermo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.14 xG and Palermo 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.015 / defence 1.050 | Palermo attack 1.156 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.137. Data: 46 Modena games / 46 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 29% | Draw 30% | Palermo 41%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Palermo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Palermo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 29% | Draw 30% | Palermo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Modena 1.14 / Palermo 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.015 / def 1.050 | Palermo attack 1.156 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Palermo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Palermo kick off?
Modena vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Palermo?
Modena 2 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Modena vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Palermo part of?
Modena vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 29% chance of winning, Palermo a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Modena and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
Record (4 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 4W.
What form are Modena and Palermo in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Palermo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Modena vs Palermo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.33
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Modena xG
Total xG
2.52
1.38
Palermo xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Modena and 1.38 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Modena have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 12W 20D 14L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 17W 12D 17L from 46 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.22 PPG, Palermo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 9W 6D 8L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.46 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Palermo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 12W 20D 14L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Palermo have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.30 PPG; Palermo away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Palermo have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 48%, Palermo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Modena) and 44% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Modena's recent matches and 56% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Modena's recent games and 44% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Palermo tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Palermo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Palermo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena and Palermo finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.14 xG and Palermo 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Palermo attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 29% | Draw 30% | Palermo 41%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Palermo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.22 PPG, Palermo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.