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Shock result as Padova defy the odds to beat Modena 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Padova beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.40 xG and Padova 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Padova outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Padova attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Padova 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Padova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 42%, Padova 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Padova's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Padova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Padova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights