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Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.71 xG and Juve Stabia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Juve Stabia attack 1.09 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.38 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights