Modena 3-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 2 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Modena's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Modena have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Juve Stabia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Modena 1W, Juve Stabia 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 60% versus Juve Stabia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Juve Stabia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.71 xG and Juve Stabia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.035 / defence 0.926 | Juve Stabia attack 1.094 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.125. Juve Stabia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Modena games / 47 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 22%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Juve Stabia 4.55. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 70% | Juve Stabia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Modena 1.71 / Juve Stabia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.035 / def 0.926 | Juve Stabia attack 1.094 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Modena (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Juve Stabia xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Modena vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Modena 3 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Modena vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Juve Stabia part of?
Modena vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 47% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Modena and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Modena and Juve Stabia in?
Modena (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.03) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (1.09x) against Modena's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.27
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Modena xG
Total xG
2.85
1.14
Juve Stabia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Modena and 1.14 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 18D 14L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.48 PPG from 48 outings (18W 17D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Modena against 1.48 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Modena's home form reads 9W 9D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (4W 11D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 18D 14L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 18W 17D 13L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Juve Stabia away?
Modena's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.57 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Modena or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Modena
0
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Juve Stabia?
From 5 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Juve Stabia?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 65%, Juve Stabia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Modena) and 52% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Modena's games and 61% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Modena's recent games and 52% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.71 xG and Juve Stabia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Juve Stabia attack 1.09 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.38 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.