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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Carrarese host Frosinone at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Carrarese — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Frosinone have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 1.40 PPG, Frosinone 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Carrarese have won 1, Frosinone 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Frosinone winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Carrarese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Frosinone in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Frosinone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Frosinone 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.45 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.193 / defence 1.064 | Frosinone attack 1.040 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.143. Data: 48 Carrarese games / 48 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 38% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 29%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Frosinone 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Carrarese 50% | Frosinone 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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