Modena 3-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Modena take on Juve Stabia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia have collected 1.60 PPG across 5 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Modena, 1.60 for Juve Stabia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 80% and Juve Stabia 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 60% | Juve Stabia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.95 xG and Juve Stabia 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.929 / defence 0.999 | Juve Stabia attack 0.833 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.099. Data: 43 Modena games / 5 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 33% | Draw 35% | Juve Stabia 31%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Juve Stabia 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Juve Stabia 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 33% | Draw 35% | Juve Stabia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Modena 0.95 / Juve Stabia 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.929 / def 0.999 | Juve Stabia attack 0.833 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Juve Stabia xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Modena vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Modena 3 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Modena vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Juve Stabia part of?
Modena vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 33% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Modena and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Juve Stabia in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.93) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.83x) against Modena's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
35%
2.82
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Modena xG
Total xG
1.87
0.92
Juve Stabia xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Modena and 0.92 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Modena — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juve Stabia in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Modena or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Modena
0
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Juve Stabia?
From 5 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Juve Stabia?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 80%, Juve Stabia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Modena) and 40% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 60%; Juve Stabia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Modena's games and 40% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Modena's recent games and 40% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.95 xG and Juve Stabia 0.92 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Juve Stabia attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 33% | Draw 35% | Juve Stabia 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 60%, Juve Stabia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Modena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.