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Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Empoli 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.94 xG and Empoli 0.81 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Empoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 61% | Draw 27% | Empoli 12%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights