Modena vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Modena) versus 1.00 (Cremonese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Modena, 2 for Cremonese and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 49% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 51% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.29 xG and Cremonese 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.864 / defence 0.966 | Cremonese attack 0.724 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Modena games / 3 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 48% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 23%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 4.35. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Cremonese 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 48% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Modena 1.29 / Cremonese 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.864 / def 0.966 | Cremonese attack 0.724 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Modena (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cremonese xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cremonese kick off?
Modena vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cremonese part of?
Modena vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 48% chance of winning, Cremonese a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Modena and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
Record (5 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Modena and Cremonese in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.86) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.47
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Modena xG
Total xG
2.10
0.81
Cremonese xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Modena and 0.81 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 10D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 0.90 PPG from 41 outings (9W 10D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Cremonese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 9W 3D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (5W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.85 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 9W 10D 22L in their last 41 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cremonese away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Modena or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cremonese in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Cremonese runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2023, when Cremonese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Modena
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
From 5 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Cremonese 0-3 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Cremonese 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Modena) and 40% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cremonese in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 30% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Modena's recent games and 40% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cremonese tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.