🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Modena's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 29, as Modena and Cesena drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.42 xG and Cesena 1.06 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Modena fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cesena landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Cesena attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 45% | Draw 28% | Cesena 27%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Cesena 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Cesena's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Cesena 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights