Modena 0-1 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cesena make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cesena have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cesena away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Modena against 1.30 for Cesena. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Modena 0W, Cesena 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cesena half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 65% and Cesena 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 51% | Cesena 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.58 xG and Cesena 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.072 / defence 1.244 | Cesena attack 0.816 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.160. Data: 75 Modena games / 37 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 46% | Draw 27% | Cesena 27%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Cesena 3.70. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 80% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 46% | Draw 27% | Cesena 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Modena 1.58 / Cesena 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.072 / def 1.244 | Cesena attack 0.816 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Modena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cesena xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cesena kick off?
Modena vs Cesena kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cesena?
Modena 0 - 1 Cesena.
Where is Modena vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cesena part of?
Modena vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 46% chance of winning, Cesena a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Modena and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cesena?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 1 | Cesena 0W.
What form are Modena and Cesena in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Cesena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.07) and Cesena's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.82x) against Modena's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.68
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Modena xG
Total xG
2.76
1.18
Cesena xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
6%
17.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Modena and 1.18 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 10W 15D 12L from 37 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 13L across 37 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Modena against 1.35 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 6W 8D 4L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Cesena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cesena in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 10W 15D 12L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Cesena have gone 13W 11D 13L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cesena away?
Modena's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.44 PPG; Cesena away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Modena
2
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Cesena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Modena 0-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 72%, Cesena 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Modena) and 44% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Cesena in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Modena's games and 56% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Modena's recent games and 44% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cesena tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cesena in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cesena defy the odds to beat Modena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Modena 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.58 xG and Cesena 1.18 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Modena fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.07 / defence 1.24 against Cesena attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 46% | Draw 27% | Cesena 27%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Cesena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 51%, Cesena 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Cesena's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.22 PPG, Cesena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Cesena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.