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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Catanzaro 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Catanzaro 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.38 xG and Catanzaro 1.03 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Catanzaro attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 43% | Draw 30% | Catanzaro 26%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 41%, Catanzaro 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Catanzaro's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.21 PPG, Catanzaro 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights