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Poisson model rates Modena at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Modena host Benevento at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Modena — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Modena have won 0, Benevento 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Benevento winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.73 xG and Benevento 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.973 / defence 0.981 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Modena games / 0 Benevento games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Modena 56% | Draw 26% | Benevento 18%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Modena (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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