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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Carrarese welcome Cremonese to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Cremonese — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Carrarese) versus 1.00 (Cremonese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Carrarese's 30% rate and Cremonese's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Cremonese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Carrarese trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Cremonese trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 47% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 50% | Cremonese 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.70 xG and Cremonese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.957 / defence 0.950 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Carrarese games / 0 Cremonese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Carrarese 56% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 18%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Carrarese (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 30% | Cremonese 20% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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