Modena vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Arezzo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Modena welcome Arezzo to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arezzo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arezzo away from home this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Modena have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Arezzo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Arezzo in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 70% and Arezzo 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Modena 70% | Arezzo 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.91 xG and Arezzo 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.194 / defence 0.926 | Arezzo attack 0.918 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Modena games / 10 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 56% | Draw 25% | Arezzo 19%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Arezzo 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Modena (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Arezzo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 56% | Draw 25% | Arezzo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Modena 1.91 / Arezzo 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.194 / def 0.926 | Arezzo attack 0.918 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Modena (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Arezzo xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Arezzo kick off?
Modena vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Arezzo part of?
Modena vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 56% chance of winning, Arezzo a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Modena and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Arezzo in?
Modena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Arezzo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.19x the league average against Arezzo's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arezzo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.97
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Modena xG
Total xG
2.96
1.05
Arezzo xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
3%
35.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Modena and 1.05 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Arezzo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 2D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arezzo sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Arezzo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Arezzo have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Arezzo travel well.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 0.90 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Arezzo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Arezzo away?
Modena's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 2.00 PPG; Arezzo away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Modena or Arezzo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Arezzo in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 60%, Arezzo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Modena and 80% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Arezzo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Modena's games and 60% of Arezzo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Modena's matches and 80% of Arezzo's.
Do Modena and Arezzo tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.