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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mantova and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova and Sudtirol finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.32 xG and Sudtirol 1.82 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.99 / defence 1.51 against Sudtirol attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 25% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 46%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 53%, Sudtirol 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.07 PPG, Sudtirol 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights