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Mantova cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sudtirol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Sudtirol 2-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.05 xG and Sudtirol 1.67 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Sudtirol attack 1.22 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 22% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 50%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Mantova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Sudtirol 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Sudtirol's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.00 PPG, Sudtirol 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights