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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mantova and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova and Spezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 0.73 xG and Spezia 1.16 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.82 / defence 1.05 against Spezia attack 0.94 / defence 0.70, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 21% | Draw 35% | Spezia 44%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Spezia 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Spezia's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights