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Dominant Sassuolo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Mantova 0-3 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.24 xG and Sassuolo 1.52 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sassuolo outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Sassuolo attack 1.19 / defence 1.08, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 29% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 42%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 46%, Sassuolo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sassuolo's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights