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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mantova and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova and Sampdoria finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.34 xG and Sampdoria 1.31 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Sampdoria attack 1.09 / defence 1.25, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 35% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 41%, Sampdoria 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.23 PPG, Sampdoria 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights