🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Mantova 0-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.28 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Reggiana outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Reggiana attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 39% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 29%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 37%, Reggiana 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Reggiana's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.21 PPG, Reggiana 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights