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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mantova and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 19, as Mantova and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.15 xG and Palermo 1.49 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.93 / defence 1.25 against Palermo attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 29% | Draw 27% | Palermo 44%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Palermo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights