Mantova 0-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 11 as Mantova welcome Palermo to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 3W 1D 0L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Palermo — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mantova 1.20 PPG, Palermo 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Palermo trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 50% versus Palermo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mantova 30% | Palermo 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.12 xG and Palermo 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.927 / defence 1.039 | Palermo attack 1.167 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.112. Data: 10 Mantova games / 48 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 33% | Palermo 39%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Palermo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 50% | Palermo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 33% | Palermo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Mantova 1.12 / Palermo 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.927 / def 1.039 | Palermo attack 1.167 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Palermo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Palermo kick off?
Mantova vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Palermo?
Mantova 0 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Mantova vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Palermo part of?
Mantova vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 28% chance of winning, Palermo a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mantova and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Palermo in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Palermo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Mantova vs Palermo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 0.93x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
28%
3.55
33%
3.06
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.46
1.35
Palermo xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.66
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mantova and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Mantova and 1.35 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 3D 4L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.20 PPG, Palermo on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mantova's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Palermo travel well.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.20 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Palermo in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Palermo have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Palermo away?
Mantova's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 2.50 PPG; Palermo away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Mantova or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Palermo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Palermo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mantova's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Palermo 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 50%, Palermo 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Mantova) and 75% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mantova's games and 75% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mantova's recent games and 75% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Palermo tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Palermo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mantova's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova and Palermo finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.12 xG and Palermo 1.35 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Palermo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Palermo attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 28% | Draw 33% | Palermo 39%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 30%, Palermo 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.20 PPG, Palermo 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.